Chapter 7: Trends and Suggestions

Chapter 6 indicates that the international community's attention to the persecution of Chinese house churches significantly warmed up in 2025, but its marginal effect remains very limited. Facing the authorities' continuously refined suppression mechanism, external solidarity is difficult to shake the fundamental logic of its domestic policy. Based on the case analysis and statistical data in the previous chapters, this chapter will assess the overall trend of persecution of Chinese house churches in 2025 and propose corresponding suggestions for different subjects.

I. Future Outlook: Assessment of Persecution Trends 2026–2030

Based on the analysis of persecution data in 2025 and the observation of the evolution of China's religious policy in recent years, we expect that in the next 5 years (2026–2030), Chinese house churches will most likely face a new stage where "normalized high pressure" and "systematic governance" coexist. The authorities' suppression strategy is expected to gradually shift from campaign-style centralized rectification to more precise, concealed, and legally-appearing normalized governance. existing persecution patterns may be solidified and may further escalate in the following dimensions.

1. "Involution" and "Standardization" of Judicial Governance

Trend Assessment: Criminal convictions against churches are expected to no longer be special cases but become a standard administrative management tool. It is highly likely that unified sentencing guidelines will be issued across regions, making persecution more institutionalized and procedural.

• From "Special Case Handling" to "Standard Operation": In the past few years, heavy sentences for pastors often had the nature of "punishing one to warn a hundred," usually supervised by central or provincial departments. In the future, this model may sink to become the "Standard Operating Procedure" (SOP) of grassroots law enforcement agencies. We expect that public security and procuratorates in various places will form a set of standardized conviction logic and evidence chain templates for house churches (especially for offering funds), making prosecution and sentencing faster and more common.
• Unification of Sentencing: To avoid law enforcement differences between regions, the Supreme Court or the Supreme Procuratorate may establish unified sentencing standards for "fraud" and "illegal business operations" involving religion through internal documents or guiding cases. This means that once convicted, church leaders will face predictable heavy sentences regardless of the province, and the elastic space for judicial discretion will be significantly compressed.
• Seamless Connection between Administrative Punishment and Criminal Justice: The newly revised Public Security Administration Punishments Law^[1] and other administrative regulations are expected to form a closer connection with the Criminal Law. For minor "violations" that do not constitute a crime, administrative detention will become the norm; once the red line of amount or number of people is touched, it will immediately transfer to criminal procedures. This "dual-track system" aims to ensure "full coverage" of strikes against house churches.

2. Escalation of Digital Totalitarianism: From "Surveillance" to "Prediction and Blockade"

Trend Assessment: Digital totalitarianism is very likely to escalate from passive post-accountability to active "predictive policing" and "source blockade."

• AI-Enabled Predictive Policing: With the deep application of artificial intelligence in the field of public security, authorities may use big data to analyze the travel patterns, consumption habits, and communication frequency of church members to establish "abnormal behavior models." Before the church conducts large-scale gatherings or cross-regional connections, the system can issue early warnings, enabling the police to intervene "preemptively" and eliminate gatherings in the bud.
• "White List" System for Internet Religious Information Services: The existing Measures for the Administration of Internet Religious Information Services^[2] may be further tightened. In the future, this may evolve into a strict "white list" system, meaning only accounts approved by special official approval (mainly within the "Three-Self" system) can publish religious content. For house churches, this means that living space in the public online space (WeChat, Weibo, Douyin, etc.) will be completely blocked, and any unofficial religious expression will be automatically intercepted and blocked by the system.
• Targeted Communication Blocking: Targeting encrypted communication software or circumvention tools used by house churches, authorities may develop more targeted blocking technologies or locate users by identifying traffic characteristics, thereby cutting off digital contact between church members or between the church and the outside world.

3. Complete Disappearance of "Gray Areas" and Binary Opposition

Trend Assessment: The "unregistered but tacitly approved" intermediate state that house churches have long relied on for survival is expected to cease to exist, and the church landscape will present extreme binary opposition.

• "De-elasticity" of Persecution: In the past, many local governments adopted an attitude of "tacit approval" or "ambiguous handling" towards house churches where no public conflict occurred for the sake of stability maintenance. However, as observers have pointed out: "Although Chinese house churches seemed to have obtained a 'gray space' that was neither legal nor illegal in the past forty years, the implementation of the new Regulations on Religious Affairs has completely defined this gray area as illegal."^[3] In the future, as the pressure of "comprehensive strict governance of religion" is transmitted downwards, this elastic space will disappear. All churches must face an "either-or" choice.^[4]
• Acceleration of "Co-optation" and "Transformation": For moderate or traditional house churches, authorities will increase united front efforts, inducing them to register or affiliate by offering certain activity spaces as bait. This will lead to differentiation within the house church community, with some compromising for survival and others forced deeper underground for sticking to their stance.
• Fragmentation of Underground Churches: Churches that resolutely do not compromise will be unable to maintain a public, organized form. As a pastor said: "The goal of this campaign is very clear: to break up the tangible church, making it underground, dispersed, and atomized."^[3:1] To survive, they will be forced to completely break into parts and return to the initial form of "home," that is, micro, secret, decentralized family gatherings. This pattern will make the ecology of the Chinese church more polarized.
• Normalized Embedding of "Counter-Espionage" Narrative: With the intensification of geopolitical tensions, especially as a countermeasure to the international community's concern about "transnational repression" described in Chapter 6, the connection between house churches and overseas will face harsher political characterization.
  • "Pan-Politicization" of Faith Exchange: In the future, normal faith exchanges between house churches and overseas institutions, seminaries, or even individuals (such as receiving theological training, sharing prayer letters, small financial support) are very likely to be directly elevated to the height of "endangering national security." Authorities will normalize the use of national security legal tools such as the Counter-Espionage Law^[5] to characterize these religious activities as "espionage" or "collusion with foreign forces."
  • Heavy Sentencing for Foreign-Related Cases: For church cases involving overseas factors, sentencing standards will be significantly higher than domestic cases. This is not only to cut off specific capital or personnel chains but also to politically brand house churches as "agents of external hostile forces," thereby providing a legitimate excuse for their suppression.

4. Crisis of "Interruption" in Intergenerational Transmission

Trend Assessment: The struggle for the next generation will escalate from administrative order-style "prohibition" to deprivation and severe punishment at the legislative level.

• Legislative Prohibition of Family Education: Current restrictions on minors entering churches are mainly based on administrative regulations. In the future, authorities may push for legislation to explicitly prohibit religious education for minors within the family, and even characterize "homeschooling" as an illegal act violating the Compulsory Education Law or even the Law on the Protection of Minors.
• Threat to Custody: In extreme cases, authorities may cite the legal principle of "maximization of minors' interests" to deprive parents who insist on Christian education for their children of custody, or forcibly separate children from parents on the grounds of "ideological poisoning." This will be the most severe ethical and legal challenge facing house churches, aiming to fundamentally cut off the intergenerational transmission of faith.

II. Relevant Suggestions

1. Suggestions for Domestic House Churches

Facing the increasingly severe persecution environment, house churches need to prepare and adjust from multiple levels such as theology, organization, law, and family construction to maintain faith and survive in challenges.

• Theological Preparation:

  • Teaching on "Theology of Suffering": The church should systematically teach believers biblical truths about suffering, helping them establish a correct view of suffering, understanding that suffering is an inevitable part of following Christ, so as not to stumble in persecution but to experience the grace of God's presence. This includes in-depth study of scriptures such as 1 Peter and Romans Chapter 8.
  • Teaching on "Separation of Church and State": Clarify that the authority of the church comes from Christ, not secular regimes. On core issues of faith, the church needs to stick to the biblical bottom line and not compromise with political pressure, while in the public sphere, Christians should fulfill civic responsibilities with wisdom and love.

• Organizational Adjustment:

  • Break into Parts, Small Group and Family Pastoral Care: Facing the reality that large-scale gatherings are blocked, churches should actively promote the transformation of pastoral models, shifting from traditional centralized large gatherings to smaller-scale small group gatherings and family gatherings. This decentralized model can improve the church's concealment and survival resilience, ensuring continuous contact and pastoral care for the faith community.
  • Decentralization, Cultivating More Lay Leaders: Avoid church paralysis after leaders are arrested due to over-reliance on a few core coworkers. The church should vigorously cultivate and equip lay leaders, giving them authority to shepherd and lead small groups, forming a multi-center, grid-based leadership structure to ensure the church can still operate when core leaders are impacted.

• Legal Response:

  • Popularize Legal Knowledge and Interrogation Skills: The church should organize relevant training to popularize basic legal knowledge to believers, especially legal provisions related to religious freedom and civil rights. At the same time, teach believers how to protect their rights and interests when facing interrogation, how to respond wisely, and avoid making statements unfavorable to themselves and the church under pressure.
  • Prepare Necessary Legal Documents and Lawyer Support Network: Prepare legal documents such as power of attorney in advance so that legal aid can be quickly activated in emergencies. Establish and maintain a support network composed of experienced lawyers to provide timely legal advice and defense for persecuted pastors and believers.

• Family Construction:

  • Value Family Altars, Strengthen Parents' Faith Education for Children: With churches and Sunday schools restricted, the family becomes a key position for faith transmission. Parents should attach importance to establishing family altars, strengthening faith education for children through family worship, Bible stories, prayer, etc., to resist the increasingly strengthened atheist indoctrination and ideological influence in schools and society.

2. Suggestions for Overseas Churches and Organizations

Overseas churches are an important backing for persecuted members, and your connection and support are crucial.

• Spiritual Support and Connection:

  • Establish "One-on-One" Adoption Prayer: It is recommended that overseas churches, as small groups or fellowships, long-term "adopt" a persecuted Chinese house church or a persecuted family, pray for them regularly, and maintain (under safe premises) moderate contact.
  • Convey True Information: Share true testimonies of the Chinese church in overseas churches, break the information cocoon, and stimulate the love and intercession of universal members.

• Partnership and Resource Sharing:

  • Provide Theological Resources: Provide high-quality theological books, training courses, and pastoral materials to Chinese churches through safe channels, especially on urgent topics such as theology of suffering and family pastoral care.
  • Security Awareness Training: Assist domestic churches in improving network security and counter-reconnaissance awareness, sharing digital security tools and experiences.

3. Suggestions for Seminaries and Mission Agencies

Facing changes in the Chinese context, traditional training and mission models need strategic adjustments.

• Adjust Training Models:

  • "Miniaturization" and "Mobilization": Develop micro-theological courses suitable for small group and family environments to facilitate teaching in a dispersed state.
  • Strengthen "Bi-vocational Ministry" Training: Given the sharp increase in risks for full-time preachers, focus on training bi-vocational ministers so they can survive in the workplace and shepherd the church.

• Long-term Commitment and Companionship:

  • From "Ministry-Oriented" to "Relationship-Oriented": Reduce large-scale, explicit project cooperation, and instead focus on building deep, personal trust relationships, conducting long-term life companionship and mentorship.

4. Suggestions for Ordinary Intercessors

Every Christian's prayer is a weapon to break strongholds.

• Specific Prayer: Do not just pray generally, but pay attention to specific cases, specific persecuted individuals, and their family names. Read relevant reports and prayer letters to understand their specific needs.
• Write Letters and Visit: When conditions permit and it is safe, write letters to saints in prison (even if not received, it is a testimony), or send cards to families of the persecuted to express greetings.
• Spread the Truth: Forward reliable prayer information on social media or in friend circles (pay attention to safety) so that more people know and participate in watching.

5. Suggestions for the International Community

• Continuous Attention and Recording:

  • Governments, Human Rights Organizations, and Media Should Continue to Pay Attention: The international community should maintain high attention to the status of religious freedom in China and regularly release the latest information on the persecution of Chinese house churches through official statements, annual reports, media reports, etc. This helps raise international awareness of this issue and form moral pressure on the Chinese government.
  • Establish a Database of Persecuted Christians: Capable international institutions or human rights organizations should establish and maintain a detailed database of persecuted Christians, including case details, victim information (desensitized ensuring safety), charges, sentences, etc. This not only helps ensure the preservation and traceability of evidence but also provides a solid foundation for future accountability and assistance.

• Diplomatic Pressure:

  • Make Religious Freedom an Important Diplomatic Issue: In bilateral and multilateral diplomatic occasions, governments should raise the status of religious freedom in China as an important issue, urging the Chinese government to abide by the international human rights conventions it has signed and guarantee citizens' freedom of religious belief.
  • Sanction Officials Involved in Persecution: Referencing international human rights accountability mechanisms such as the Magnitsky Act^[6], impose targeted sanctions on Chinese officials who directly participate in or direct the persecution of religious figures, such as visa restrictions and asset freezes. Such sanctions can effectively increase the cost of persecution and form a deterrent.

• Substantive Support:

  • Provide Humanitarian Aid: The international community should provide necessary humanitarian aid to persecuted pastors, preachers, and their families, including living expenses, medical expenses, children's education funding, etc. This aid can alleviate the economic plight of persecuted families and help them tide over difficulties.
  • Provide Asylum and Resettlement: For Christians forced to flee abroad due to severe persecution for their faith, the international community should provide asylum and resettlement to ensure they can continue to live and believe in a safe country and have the opportunity to speak out for the status of religious freedom in China.

6. Call to the Chinese Government

This report makes the following calls to the Chinese government, hoping it will face up to the fact that freedom of religious belief is a universal human right and act in accordance with the Constitution and international human rights commitments.

• Return to the Spirit of the Constitution, Implement Freedom of Religious Belief:

  • The Chinese government should immediately stop all suppression acts that violate the provisions of Article 36 of the Constitution of the People's Republic of China^[7] regarding "citizens have freedom of religious belief." This article explicitly guarantees citizens' freedom of religious belief, and the government should ensure its true implementation in practice rather than being arbitrarily interpreted or hollowed out. Respecting citizens' faith choices is a basic sign of a modern civilized country.
  • Stop discrimination and illegal treatment against unregistered house churches, ensuring that all citizens, regardless of their religious affiliation, can enjoy equal constitutional rights.

• Immediately and Unconditionally Release Pastors and Believers:

  • The Chinese government should immediately and unconditionally release all pastors and believers illegally detained for faith reasons. These "prisoners of conscience" are merely practicing their faith but are framed with charges and sentenced to heavy terms, which is not only a trampling on their personal rights but also serious damage to the spirit of the rule of law.
  • Provide state compensation to victims and their families who have suffered persecution due to religious belief, and hold relevant responsible persons legally accountable.

• Administer by Law, Guarantee Citizens' Legitimate Rights and Interests:

  • Government departments should strictly abide by legal procedures in the management of religious affairs, stop abusing administrative power to interfere in internal church affairs, and especially stop using economic charges such as "fraud" and "illegal business operations" to crack down on normal religious activities and church offerings.
  • Guarantee the legitimate rights and interests of citizens in criminal proceedings, including the right to meet with lawyers, the right to defense, the right to appeal, etc., correct all unjust, false, and wrongful cases in religious cases, and ensure judicial justice. At the same time, stop the guilt by association and harassment of victims' families, and guarantee their basic living rights and personal freedom.
  • Cancel or revise all religious management policies and regulations that do not conform to international human rights standards, especially those clauses that restrict the religious freedom of minors and hinder the normal development of the church.

III. Conclusion

For the Chinese house church, 2025 was a difficult year, but also a year where grace abounded. Although the means of persecution are escalating and the net of the law is tightening, we still see that on the land of China, the church of Christ has not been shaken but has become purer and more resilient through trials.

This report is not only a record of suffering but also a testimony of faith. It witnesses that in the harsh winter, the seeds of life are still sprouting and growing. We are convinced that the ruler of history is not the kings of the earth, but Jesus Christ who died and rose again.

May this report stimulate the love of more members and converge into a flood of prayer. May we stand with the suffering members until the moment dawn breaks.

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1. Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, "Public Security Administration Punishments Law of the People's Republic of China (2025 Revision)," NPC.gov.cn, 2025, accessed December 1, 2025, http://www.npc.gov.cn/npc/c2/. ↩︎

2. State Administration for Religious Affairs, Cyberspace Administration of China, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of State Security, "Measures for the Administration of Internet Religious Information Services," Gov.cn, December 3, 2021, accessed December 1, 2025, https://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2022/content_5672036.htm. ↩︎

3. Yu Shenlin, "Faithful Disobedience: The Floating and Sinking Record of Chinese House Churches," Women for China, September 30, 2025, accessed December 1, 2025, https://women4china.substack.com/p/house-church-in-china. ↩︎ ↩︎

4. It is worth noting that since 2019, officially recognized religious activity venues can apply for legal person registration (donation legal person), thereby obtaining independent subject status legally. However, this path is only open to the "Three-Self" system. House churches are completely excluded from legal person status because they cannot register, further reinforcing this binary legal dilemma. ↩︎

5. Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, "Counter-Espionage Law of the People's Republic of China (2023 Revision)," Gov.cn, April 26, 2023, accessed December 1, 2025, https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/2023-04/27/content_5753385.htm. ↩︎

6. 114th Congress, "S.284 - Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act," Congress.gov, December 23, 2016, accessed December 1, 2025, https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/284. ↩︎

7. National People's Congress, "Constitution of the People's Republic of China," NPC.gov.cn, March 11, 2018, accessed December 1, 2025, http://www.npc.gov.cn/npc/c505/201803/e87e5cd7c1ce46ef866f4ec8e2d709ea.shtml. ↩︎